Model Master

Strategic Modelling for PCTs and NHS Trusts
Key tool for Foundation Trust application and ongoing financial/planning strategies It is now a key function of NHS boards to plan for the future and to have a clear understanding of how their Trust will change over 5, 10 or even 15 years. This is necessary as most healthcare services cannot be easily commissioned or decommissioned overnight. It can take 5 years or more if infrastructure changes are required. Even the reconfiguration of staff can take a considerable time.

By making informed assumptions it is possible to predict the future. In healthcare the assumptions are many and diverse. Model Master takes the numerous complex assumptions and applies them to a baseline model of Trust activities, usually supplied automatically by PSCAL’s income management solution (SLAM). Using this information it creates models of how a Trust will change over the next 1 to 15 years. By amending assumptions the model can be developed to give a clear view of where you are going and what you need to do to get there. All the criteria affecting future activity and income are fully documented within the model, providing the series of targets which the Trust must achieve over the years in order to reach their predicted size and form.

Model Master is the ideal tool for:

• Reporting the future activity, income and profitability of the Trust
• Iterative modelling of variables towards a target configuration
• “What-if” modelling to test new ideas
• Preparation for Foundation status
• Extrapolating SLAM models into future years
• Demonstrating cause and effect
  

For PCTs Model Master will:

• Predict secondary and tertiary healthcare requirements for the health economy
• Improve budget estimates
• Provide an audit trail for assumptions
• Save time
• Encourage dialogue with providers
• Inform service reconfiguration

For NHS Trusts Model Master will:

• Inform infrastructure planning
• Drive service development and re-configuration
• Provide a firm basis for board strategic planning
• Build on existing activity and income information with SLAM

Key Features of Model Master:

• Saves thousands of hours of spreadsheet development
• Click and go feed of baseline data from SLAM
• Supports multiple baseline models
• Full audit trail of assumptions
• Quality assured for errors and omissions
• Outputs can be exported to MS Office to produce bespoke reports
• Assumptions are easy to amend
• Can be used real-time in planning meetings
• Multiple output reports
• User defined reports
• Adaptable to new assumptions
• Fully maintained
• Regularly updated in line with DoH guidance and user requirements
• Supported by our help desk, developers and consultants
• Comprehensive user manual
• Full training provided

The following assumptions are examples of the information used to drive Model Master forecasts and reports:

Activity Growth Assumptions

• Demography
• Clinical and technology demand assumptions
• Stepped activity changes
• Performance assumptions Daycase performance
• Length of stay performance improvement: elective
• Length of stay performance improvement: non-elective
• Bed occupancy
• Follow up outpatient ratio performance

Market Share Assumptions

• Care setting/market share assumptions: day cases
• Care setting/market share assumptions: elective
• Care setting/market share assumptions: non-elective
• Care setting/market share assumptions: RDAs
• Care setting/market share assumptions: first outpatients
• A&E growth
• Occupied bed day growth

Financial Assumptions

• Model defaults
• Real tariff value
• Income step change assumptions
• Other income assumptions (real)
• Expenditure: stepped cost assumptions
• Expenditure: inflation assumptions
• CRES assumptions
• MFF/threshold assumptions

To find out more call 0845 054 0066 or email enquires@pscal.com